Introduction
After three years of pandemic shutdowns, reopening booms, war, clogged supply chains and nascent inflation, European policymakers thought that 2023 would be the year the old continent returned to a new normal of decent growth and sub-2% inflation. However, the new normal is considerably uglier than economists had expected.
Positive Developments
- Euro zone has proved remarkably resilient, considering the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis.
- Headline inflation, having reached a record 10.6% in October, is falling.
- Industry has not collapsed because of the cost of fuel.
- According to the European Commission’s latest forecast, the bloc will avoid a contraction this quarter.
Employment and Consumption
- The number of people employed across the bloc rose again in the fourth quarter of 2022.
- Unemployment rate is at its lowest since the euro came into existence in 1999.
- Consumption contributed half a percentage point to quarterly growth in the second and third quarters of 2022.
- Households began to tighten their purse strings in the fourth quarter of 2022.
- Consumption could become a problem as state handouts and price caps will be withdrawn this year.
Inflation
- Inflation is proving stubborn and wholesale energy prices are passed on to consumers in different ways across the EU, making forecasting difficult.
- High prices and labor shortages are pushing up pay demands, which could add to inflation.
- Wages in the euro zone tend to follow underlying, or “core”, inflation.
- The consumer-price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 7% in the year to January.
- Services, in particular, face steeply rising costs, according to the pmi survey, which may lead to further price increases.
Challenges
- Europe's strong jobs market could add to inflation.
- The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates high.
- Credit standards are already tightening, according to the bank’s lending survey.
- The euro zone's prospects for growth in 2023 are not optimistic.
Conclusion
The euro zone may have escaped recession so far, but its prospects—stubborn core inflation, high interest rates and a weak economy—are hardly pleasant. The imf predicts 0.7% growth in 2023; the commission forecasts 0.9%. Even this might be optimistic. America faces equally stubborn inflation, and China’s reopening has not provided much of a boost to the bloc. Welcome to the grim new normal.
Tags
- EuropeEconomy
- PandemicShutdowns
- ReopeningBooms
- War
- SupplyChains
- Inflation
- EuroZone
- EnergyCrisis
- RussiaUkraineConflict
- IFOsurvey